Risk Assessment of Arbaeen Mass Gathering in the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Introduction: Arbaeen is a religious ceremony held annually with the participation of a large number of pilgrims. During the pandemic of Covid-19, a mass gathering of Arbaeen pilgrims can strengthen the transmission of this disease and put more pressure on the health care system of countries. The aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of Arbaeen ceremony in the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. Materials and methods: A mixed method was performed to perform the study using qualitative and quantitative methods. A national risk assessment tool was used that consisted of hazard identification and assessment, scenario development, exposure assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk estimation. The national risk assessment tool was completed through a focused group discussion and the opinions of 20 representatives of the health system and the level of risks were estimated. Data were collected, analyzed, and integrated by the research team. Results: Based on the results of risk matrix analysis, factors such as the increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19, the probability of exposure to a new variant of COVID-19, the probability of arrival of a new variant of COVID-19 to the country, the probability of increasing referrals to healthcare facilities (score 16), the probability of getting respiratory diseases, and the environmental contamination (score 12) occupied the red area of the matrix and were found to have the highest risk (unbearable risk), that needs immediate action. Conclusion: Preparing for a mass gathering such as Arbaeen is very important in order to reduce the risk of communicable disease, and the first step in improving preparedness is risk assessment and its continuity in the various stages of the ceremony. Therefore, policy makers and planners of such events should conduct risk assessments with the participation of local and national public health authorities regularly.

2015 Estimation of Hospitals Safety from Disasters in I.R.Iran: The Results from the Assessment of 421 Hospitals.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Iran's health system has developed a Farsi edition of the Hospital Safety Index (HSI) and has integrated the related assessment program into the health information system. This article presents the results of the 2015 estimation of hospital safety from disasters in I.R.Iran using HSI. METHODS: We analyzed data from 421 hospitals that had submitted a complete HSI assessment form on the Ministry of Health and Medical Education Portal System. Data collection was based on the self-assessments of the hospital disaster committees. HSI includes 145 items categorized in three components including, structural, non-structural and functional capacity. For each item, safety status was categorized into three levels: not safe (0), average safety (1) and high safety (2). A normalized scoring scheme on a 100-point scale was developed. Hospitals were classified to three safety classes according to their normalized total score: low (≤34.0), average (34.01-66.0) and high (>66.0). RESULTS: The average score of all safety components were 43.0 out of 100 (± 11.0). Eighty-two hospitals (19.4%) were classified as not safe, and 339 hospitals (80.6%) were classified in the average safety category. No hospital was placed in the high safety category. Average safety scores were 41.0, 47.0, and 42.0 for functional capacity, non-structural safety, and structural safety respectively. The average safety score increased between 2012 and 2015, from 34.0 to 43.0. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital safety in the event of disasters has improved in Iran in recent years and more hospitals have joined the HSI program. This is a result of continuous efforts invested in capacity building programs and promotion of the 2012 HSI estimation. The HSI should be maintained to monitor the progress of Iran's health system in regards to hospital safety in the case of disasters. It is recommended that WHO continue advocacy of HSI, establish a HSI monitoring system, and add it to country profiles on WHO website.

Hospitals safety from disasters in I.R.iran: the results from assessment of 224 hospitals.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Iran's hospitals have been considerably affected by disasters during last decade. To address this, health system of I.R.Iran has taken an initiative to assess disaster safety of the hospitals using an adopted version of Hospital Safety Index (HSI). This article presents the results of disaster safety assessment in 224 Iran's hospitals. METHODS: A self-assessment approach was applied to assess the disaster safety in 145 items categorized in 3 components including structural, non-structural and functional capacity. For each item, safety level was categorized to 3 levels: not safe (0), average safe (1) and high safe (2). A raw score was tallied for each safety component and its elements by a simple sum of all the corresponding scores. All scores were normalized on a 100 point scale. Hospitals were classified to three safety classes according to their normalized total score: low (≤34.0), average (34.01-66.0) and high (>66.0). RESULTS: The average score of all safety components were 32.4 out of 100 (± 12.7 SD). 122 hospitals (54.5%) were classified as low safe and 102 hospitals (45.5%) were classified as average safe. No hospital was placed in the high safe category. Average safety scores out of 100 were 27.3 (±14.2 SD) for functional capacity, 36.0 (±13.9 SD) for non-structural component and 36.0 (±19.0 SD) for structural component. Neither the safety classes nor the scores of safety components were significantly associated with types of hospitals in terms of affiliation, function and size (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: To enhance the hospitals safety for disaster in Iran, we recommend: 1) establishment of a national committee for hospital safety in disasters; 2) supervision on implementation of the safety standards in construction of new hospitals; 3) enhancement of functional readiness and safety of non-structural components while structural retrofitting of the existing hospitals is being taken into consideration, whenever is cost-effective; 4) considering the disaster safety status as the criteria for licensing and accreditation of the hospitals. Key words: Hospital, safety, disaster, emergency, Iran Correspondence to: Ali Ardalan MD, PhD. Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Email: aardalan@tums.ac.ir, ardalan@hsph.harvard.edu.